How “temporary protection” for Ukrainians has turned into permanent temporariness in the UK
Bridging Futures is a UK-based, Ukrainian-led non-profit working to help build a pathway to long-term settlement for people under the UK’s Ukraine visa schemes.
This first post traces how the position of Ukrainians in the UK has quietly shifted from genuine temporary protection to a form of permanent temporariness – in some respects leaving us, in the long term, worse off than people who arrived irregularly.
2022 – Emergency protection, clearly temporary
In early 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the UK launched the Ukraine visa schemes (Homes for Ukraine, Ukraine Family Scheme, later the Ukraine Extension Scheme). They were framed as emergency, time-limited protection and explicitly “not a route to settlement” in the Immigration Rules.
- Immigration Rules: Appendix Ukraine Scheme
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/immigration-rules-appendix-ukraine-scheme
At that point “temporary” sounded reasonable: short-term protection in an acute crisis.
2023 – Early 2024: lives become long-term, status stays temporary
By 2023–24 it was clear that many Ukrainians were no longer just “passing through” the UK, but living here in ordinary, long-term ways.
The Government’s own ONS follow-up survey (fieldwork 15–22 April 2024, published June 2024) found that around 69% of adults on the Ukraine schemes were working.
In the same survey, in a scenario where it is safe to return to Ukraine:
- about 68% of adults said they intend to live in the UK most of the time;
only 15% said they would live in Ukraine most of the time.
- ONS bulletin (labour market and future intentions):
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/visaholdersenteringtheukundertheukrainehumanitarianschemes/15aprilto22april2024
People’s lives were becoming long-term. Their legal status was not.
Late 2024 – A technical but crucial turning point
In late 2024, something important changed quietly in the rules. Time spent in the UK under the Ukraine visa schemes stopped counting towards the 10-year Long Residence route.
- Immigration Rules: Appendix Long Residence
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/immigration-rules/immigration-rules-appendix-long-residence
Before this, even if the Ukraine schemes themselves were “not a route to settlement”, there was at least a theoretical safety net: ten years of lawful residence could, in principle, qualify for long residence.
After this change, Ukrainians were put in a uniquely precarious position: even ten or more years of lawful residence on the Ukraine schemes will never qualify for long residence, purely because of the visa category they were given. This was not an accident of drafting; it was a specific decision to exclude Ukrainians from the main safety-net route to settlement.
At the same time, research began to describe a growing sense of “living in limbo”. The report “Young Ukrainians in the UK two years on: Lives in Limbo” finds that over two-thirds of young Ukrainians (16–29) would like to remain in the UK and describes the effects of long-term uncertainty on education, mental health and family life.
- Young Ukrainians in the UK – Lives in Limbo:
https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/schools/gees/research/projects/futures-of-ukraine/young-ukrainians-in-the-uk-two-years-on-lives-in-limbo.-research-report-and-recommendations.pdf
By this point, many Ukrainians were working, renting, studying and raising children in the UK – but their legal status was still stuck at “temporary”, with no progression.
2025 – New asylum framework: 10- and 20-year routes, Ukrainians left outside
A new report, “Displaced Ukrainians: Experiences and Intentions in the UK” (University of Birmingham, 2025), shows that:
- more than 76% of respondents are economically active;
- 56% work more than 30 hours per week;
72% say they would like to stay in the UK even if it were safe to return; only 5% say they would want to return.
- Displaced Ukrainians: Experiences and Intentions in the UK:
https://blog.bham.ac.uk/supportukrainians/wp-content/uploads/sites/149/2025/11/Displaced-Ukrainians-Experiences-and-Intentions-FINAL-for-print.pdf
In November 2025 the Government published its policy statement “Restoring Order and Control: A statement on the Government’s asylum and returns policy”. It sets out a new framework built around “core protection” and “safe and legal routes”.
In short:
- people arriving via reformed resettlement and sponsorship “safe and legal routes” are to be placed on a 10-year route to settlement with “earned settlement” criteria;
- others, granted protection after irregular arrival, are to be placed on a 20-year route of temporary, reviewable protection.
The Home Secretary has since described the Ukraine schemes as “bespoke and always intended to be a temporary scheme”, suggested there is an “understanding” that Ukrainians will return once the war is over, and said that Ukrainians “are not classed as refugees, because they are here temporarily on that scheme”. She has also made clear that the Ukraine schemes sit outside this new 10-year / 20-year framework.
At the same time, ministers regularly cite the Ukraine schemes as an example of the UK’s flexible humanitarian response – including the recent 24-month extension of the Ukraine Permission Extension (UPE) – but Ukrainians are kept entirely outside the new architecture.
A “safe and legal route” in practice – but no route to settlement
If you look at how Homes for Ukraine and related schemes actually work:
- Ukrainians arrived on visas, after full security and biometric checks;
- many came through sponsorship by UK households, and in Scotland via the Super Sponsor Scheme;
- large numbers are in work, paying tax, learning English, with children in British schools.
In practice this looks exactly like the kind of “safe and legal route” described in Restoring Order and Control.
But unlike those who will come under reformed resettlement routes, Ukrainians currently have no route to settlement at all:
- years on the Ukraine schemes do not count towards long residence;
- the schemes themselves are labelled “not a route to settlement”;
- and in the new 10-year / 20-year system, there is simply no place for them.
The paradox is stark:
- someone who arrived irregularly and is granted protection could, at least in theory, earn settlement after 20 years;
- a Ukrainian who arrived on a visa, passed all checks and has lived 10+ years on the Ukraine schemes could have no possibility of settlement, because those years are treated as if they do not exist.
What “permanent temporariness” means in real life
Research shows that this is not just a technical legal issue. The Displaced Ukrainians report documents:
- job refusals, non-renewal of contracts and missed opportunities because employers are wary of short visas;
- difficulties renting or renewing leases and a higher risk of homelessness;
- parents afraid of uprooting children who have integrated into UK schools;
- adults unable to commit to higher education or long-term training;
- high levels of anxiety linked directly to visa precarity and repeated short extensions with no clear endpoint.
At the same time, Government data (ONS) and independent research show that many Ukrainians in the UK are economically active, integrated and intend to stay long term.
So the issue is no longer “temporary shelter during a war”. It is a conscious policy choice to keep a large, law-abiding group of residents in a permanently temporary status – with no year, no threshold at which an integrated Ukrainian can stop being legally “temporary” and earn a secure future in the UK.
If you’ve read this far – thank you for your time and attention.